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Finance Ministry: Bulgaria Economy to Grow by 3,8 % in 2011

Date: 01.09.2009

The team of Bulgaria's Finance Minister Djankov believes the Bulgarian economy will recover in 2011

Bulgaria's economy is going to shrink by 2 % in 2010, and will recover only in 2011 with a projected growth of 3,8 %. Bulgaria's GDP is expected to by 6,3 % in 2009. These figures are included in the macroeconomic forecast of the Finance Ministry for 2010-2013 published Tuesday on the Ministry's website.

The forecast is based upon expectations that the EU economy will shrink by 4 % in 2009, and by 0,1% in 2010; it is expected to grow by 2 % in 2011.

The forecast of the team of Finance Minister Simeon Djankov also predicts an average exchange rate of BGN 1,45 for USD 1, dropping down to BGN 1,40 for 1 USD towards the end of the above-mentioned period.

In 2009, the foreign investments in Bulgaria are expected to down to 26,5 % of the GDP, compared to 38,4 % of the GDP in 2008; this is a 30% decline in FDI.

Djankov's forecast provides for a slowed growth rate of the salaries, and increasing unemployment; together with reluctance of the banks to grant loans, this would lead to a 4,5 % decrease of household consumption in 2009.

The government expenditures will be cut by 3 % by the end of 2009, which will lead to a 4,2 % decline of the total consumption in Bulgaria.

The import of goods and services is expected to by 19,5 % in 2009, whereas Bulgaria's export is expected to by 12,3 %.

The main engine for the growth of the Bulgarian economy after 2011 is expected to be the export. The GDP is said to grow by 3,8 % in 2011, by 4,8 % in 2012, and by 5 % in 2013.

The Finance Ministry expects an inflation of 1,8 % for all of 2009, and an average inflation of 2,3 % in the period of 2010-2013.

According to Djankov's team, in 2010 the unemployment will continue to rise, whereas the growth of salaries will be lower than the increase in labor productivity.

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